2023 PDFL Rookie Draft Grades

Published by Dynasty Fix
August 7, 2023

A little late on the 2023 Rookie Draft Grades but fear not – I save all information from pre-draft, post-draft, and we’ll revisit this terrible draft class 1-year from now. To kick it off; Round by round analysis: Player values include pre-draft values, post-draft values, and pick value to player differential (All from DTC).

2023 Round 1

PICK TEAM PO. PLAYER PRE POST DIFF
1.1 Josh QB Anthony Richardson 31.5 37.6 -7.2
1.2 Tee RB Bijan Robinson 41.4 44.8 7.2
1.3 Dalton QB Bryce Young 32.2 33.4 0.0
1.4 Josh QB CJ Stroud 37.3 33.1 0.0
1.5 Josh RB Jahmyr Gibbs 25.1 27.8 0.0
1.6 Joey WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 26.3 25.6 0.0
1.7 Dart WR Jordan Addison 20.7 21.7 0.0
1.8 Josh WR Quentin Johnston 16.4 18.1 0.0
1.9 Evan WR Zay Flowers 11.7 13.1 -0.7
1.10 Nick QB Will Levis 25.8 10.3 -2.8
1.11 Tee QB Hendon Hooker 9.1 7.7 -4.6
1.12 Isaac WR Jonathan Mingo 6.5 11.0 -1.0

Best Pick: RB Bijan Robinson (+7.2) – The consensus 1.1 and an instant top RB if not the top RB in startup drafts.
Worst Pick: QB Hendon Hooker (-4.6) – AR-15 went 1.1 instead of 1.2 but Hooker going 1.11 was the biggest reach considering his 2.4 draft stock.
Upside Pick: 1.3 through 1.8 (0) – only 8 players were taken exactly where they should have been taken and 6 of those 8 players were 1.3 through 1.8.

2023 Round 2

PICK TEAM PO. PLAYER PRE POST DIFF
2.1 Josh RB Devon Achane 6.5 12.0 1.0
2.2 Josh RB Tyjae Spears 5.4 5.0 -5.3
2.3 Tee RB Kendre Miller 6.8 12.3 2.3
2.4 Josh RB Zach Charbonnet 16.7 10.0 2.3
2.5 Josh WR Rashee Rice 3.0 6.0 -0.4
2.6 Josh WR Josh Downs 13.9 5.1 -0.9
2.7 Tee WR Marvin Mims 3.5 6.4 0.8
2.8 Garret WR Jalin Hyatt 11.8 3.8 -1.3
2.9 Isaac WR Jayden Reed 4.5 4.5 -0.6
2.1 Josh WR Cedric Tillman 2.9 4.4 -0.7
2.11 Josh RB Tank Bigsby 6.8 5.1 0.1
2.12 Josh WR Nathaniel Dell 0.8 2.4 -2.4

Best Pick: RB Kendre Miller (+2.3) – I’m a little surprised Kendre has more dynasty value post draft than Charbonnet, but this has all the makings to play out like another Kamara type-scenario.
Worst Pick: RB Tyjae Spears (-5.3) – Taken at 2.2 with a 2.11 pick value, ole no-knee is backing up king big dick who doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon.
Upside Pick: WR Marvin Mims (+0.8) – I really like the situation and Tim Patrick going down for the season opens up the early opportunity.

2023 Round 3

PICK TEAM PO. PLAYER PRE POST DIFF
3.1 Tee RB Roschon Johnson 2.7 5.1 0.6
3.2 Craig QB Stetson Bennett 2.6 2.6 -1.8
3.3 Isaac RB Sean Tucker 8.2 0.5 -3.3
3.4 Aaron RB Chase Brown 1.4 2.2 -0.8
3.5 Garret RB DeWayne McBride 0.4 1.5 -1.1
3.6 Joey RB Deuce Vaughn 1.6 1.8 -0.6
3.7 Nick RB Zach Evans 11.0 2.0 -0.2
3.8 Nick RB Eric Gray 0.5 1.1 -1.0
3.9 Nick RB Evan Hull 0.6 2.0 0.0
3.1 Isaac WR Michael Wilson 0.2 3.0 1.0
3.11 Aaron WR Kayshon Boutte 6.6 1.5 -0.5
3.12 Josh RB Israel Abanikanda 3.6 1.4 -0.4

Best Pick: WR Michael Wilson (+1.0) – Value wise it was the best pick but I’m always on the cautious side when player’s shoot up in value because of NFL Draft position.
Worst Pick: RB Sean Tucker (-3.3) – I don’t mind players that lose some value post draft because they went to a “bad” spot but going undrafted killed Tucker’s market value. I still really like the player.
Upside Pick: RB Evan Hull (0.0) – I was going to keep Roschon here, however, he was BPA at 3.1 and Hull is looking like he might have some upside pending the JT situation in Indy.

2023 Round 4

PICK TEAM PO. PLAYER PRE POST DIFF
4.1 Tee WR Tyler Scott 0.9 1.2 -0.6
4.2 Evan TE Dalton Kincaid 4 13.8 12.3
4.3 Dave WR Tre Tucker 0 0.7 -0.8
4.4 Josh QB Aidan O’Connell 0 1.5 0
4.5 Craig TE Michael Mayer 5.7 4.8 3.4
4.6 Joey TE Luke Musgrave 1.2 1.8 0.5
4.7 Garret RB Christopher Rodriguez 0 0.8 -0.4
4.8 Nick WR Parker Washington 1.1 0.7 -0.4
4.9 Aaron WR A.T. Perry 0 0.5 -0.5
4.1 Isaac TE Sam Laporta 0.9 5.6 4.8
4.11 Dart WR Justin Shorter 0 0.4 -0.3
4.12 Dalton QB Jake Haener 1.5 2.1 1.4

Best Pick: QB Jake Haener (+1.4) – Avoiding TE here; Haener is the classic too small not a big enough arm QB who’s really good at playing QB. Haener had pick 3.8 value and went 4.12.
Worst Pick: WR Tre Tucker (-0.8) – Another over drafted unproductive tiny receiver who might be good.
Upside Pick: TE Sam Laporta (+4.8) – Kincaid could be awesome but a lot of weapons in Buffalo. I like Laporta a lot.

2023 PDFL Draft Grades:

Rather than going with the typical ‘most’ value gained aspect I took a look at grading out how we picked when we were picking in the first 3-rounds (removing Tight Ends). I also flipped Bijan and A-Rich since it was pre-draft agreement and Bijan would/should have been the 1.1.

GRADE TEAM Pre Post Diff
A+ Dalton 32.2 33.4 0
A Dart 20.7 21.7 0
A- Joey 27.9 27.4 -0.6
B+ Evan 11.7 13.1 -0.7
B Tee 63.5 76.3 -0.9
B- Aaron 8 3.7 -1.3
C+ Craig 2.6 2.6 -1.8
C Garret 12.2 5.3 -2.4
C- Isaac 19.4 19 -3.9
D+ Nick 37.9 15.4 -4
D Josh 169.9 168 -6.7
D- Dave 0 0 0

Draft Winners: Dalton & Dart – Can’t go wrong selecting the 1st round BPA.
Draft Losers: Dave, Josh & Nick – Not a single pick in the first 3-rounds for Dave. Although it appears Josh reached on a number of picks, he at least added value to his team. I stuck to my pre-draft guys I liked who all lost value after the draft, but I did get Isaac to trade out of 1.10 for no reason. #WinIsAWinIsAWin

FULL DRAFT**

2023 PDFL Rookie Values

RANK PO. PLAYER PRE POST
1 RB Bijan Robinson 41.4 44.8
2 QB Anthony Richardson 31.5 37.6
3 QB Bryce Young 32.2 33.4
4 QB CJ Stroud 37.3 33.1
5 RB Jahmyr Gibbs 25.1 27.8
6 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 26.3 25.6
7 WR Jordan Addison 20.7 21.7
8 WR Quentin Johnston 16.4 18.1
9 TE Dalton Kincaid 4.0 13.8
10 WR Zay Flowers 11.7 13.1
11 RB Kendre Miller 6.8 12.3
12 RB Devon Achane 6.5 12.0
13 WR Jonathan Mingo 6.5 11
14 QB Will Levis 25.8 10.3
15 RB Zach Charbonnet 16.7 10.0
16 QB Hendon Hooker 9.1 7.7
17 WR Marvin Mims 3.5 6.4
18 WR Rashee Rice 3.0 6.0
19 TE Sam LaPorta 0.9 5.6
20 WR Josh Downs 13.9 5.1
21 RB Tank Bigsby 6.8 5.1
22 RB Roschon Johnson 2.7 5.1
23 RB Tyjae Spears 5.4 5.0
24 TE Michael Mayer 5.7 4.8
25 WR Jayden Reed 4.5 4.5
26 WR Cedric Tillman 2.9 4.4
27 WR Jalin Hyatt 11.8 3.8
28 WR Michael Wilson 0.2 3.0
29 QB Stetson Bennett 2.6 2.6
30 WR Tank Dell 0.8 2.4
31 RB Chase Brown 1.4 2.2
32 QB Jake Haener 1.5 2.1
33 RB Zach Evans 11.0 2.0
34 TE Darnell Washington 3.7 2.0
35 RB Evan Hull 0.6 2.0
36 RB Deuce Vaughn 1.6 1.8
37 TE Luke Musgrave 1.2 1.8
38 WR Kayshon Boutte 6.6 1.5
39 RB DeWayne McBride 0.4 1.5
40 QB Aidan O’cOnnell 0.0 1.5
41 RB Israel Abanikanda 3.6 1.4
42 QB Max Duggan 2.2 1.3
43 WR Tyler Scott 0.9 1.2
44 RB Eric Gray 0.5 1.1
45 WR Xavier Hutchinson 1.4 1.0
46 RB Christopher Rodriguez 0.0 0.8
47 WR Parker Washington 1.1 0.7
48 WR Tre Tucker 0.0 0.7
49 RB Sean Tucker 8.2 0.5
50 RB Mohamed Ibrahim 1.5 0.5
51 WR A.T. Perry 0.0 0.5
52 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton 0.9 0.4
53 WR Ronnie Bell 0.6 0.4
54 RB Keaton Mitchell 0.6 0.4
55 WR Justin Shorter 0.0 0.4
56 RB Kenny McIntosh 1.3 0.3
57 WR Andrei Iosivas 0.8 0.3
58 TE Zack Kuntz 0.7 0.0