Since 2013 there have been 87 RB’s drafted in the PDFL Rookie Drafts. Diving into Dynasty long term player values here are the RB numbers in regard to Rookie Draft Efficiency (R.D.E.):
6-of-87 RB’s are averaging top-12 seasons through their career (RB1)
9-of-87 RB’s are averaging 13-24 season finishes (RB2)
12-of-87 RB’s are averaging 25-36 season finishes (RB3)
60-of-87 RB’s are starting slow, shouldn’t be rostered, and/or don’t play any longer
Averaging RB1 Fantasy Seasons:
– Christian McCaffrey (5)
– Ezekiel Elliot (6)
– Saquon Barkley (7)
– Alvin Kamara (7)
– Todd Gurley (8)
– Nick Chubb (11)
CMC has finished RB #11, RB #2, and RB #1 in his first three seasons topping all RB’s at a current career average of #5. The only other RB who started off with three consecutive RB1 seasons is Ezekiel Elliot. Zeke has had four consecutive RB1 seasons now and no other RB since 2013 has done that. Saquon could be the third RB to start out with three RB1 seasons. Kamara is latest RB drafted of the group and he’s had seasons of RB #4, RB #4, and RB #13. Kamara joins only Jordan Howard in starting out RB1 two seasons in a row before having a RB2 season in year three. Eddie Lacy was on pace but had a RB3 season in year three before falling out of relevance. Gurley is the other RB to have had four RB1 seasons like Zeke, however, Gurley’s weren’t four consecutive seasons. Chubb joins a group of 11 RB’s who had RB2 rookie seasons, however, he and Le’Veon Bell were the only two RB’s to follow up with RB1 seasons their sophomore year. Bell went on to have RB #3 and RB #2 seasons in year four and five. Good outlook for Chubb.
The “Upside” RB2:
– Le’Veon Bell (14)
– Miles Sanders (14)
– Josh Jacobs (15)
– Leonard Fournette (18)
– Dalvin Cook (34)
Le’Veon is the foundation of the RB R.D.E. starting out his rookie season as RB #14 then having seasons of RB #2, RB #44 (suspension & injury), RB #3, RB #2, skipped 2018, and RB #19 in 2019. Bell and Giovanni Bernard are the only PDFL drafted RB’s from 2013 that are still playing in the NFL. At only 28 years young going into 2020 Bell is a solid bet to put RB2 numbers again. Sanders and Jacobs finished RB #14 and RB #15 in 2019. They both can join Bell and Chubb as the next RB’s to put RB1 numbers in season two. Jacobs in the only RB to be drafted in the 1st round of both the NFL & PDFL Draft and start out with a RB2 season. Sanders is the only 2nd round PDFL RB to start out with a RB2 season. The other ‘productive’ RB in this group is Gio who went RB #16, RB #17, RB #19, RB #40 before Mixon showed up. Yeldon was the lone miss in round 1 of the PDFL draft to start out RB2. Verdict is still out on David Montgomery’s RB #24 rookie season. Josh took DaMo 1.4 in 2019 (see below). Fournette had a RB #8 rookie season joining a group of only 10 RB’s who put up RB1 numbers their rookie season. 8 of those 11 RB’s had another RB1 season their Sophomore year. Fournette finished RB #37 his second year due to injury. However, Fournette and only Gurley bounced back with RB1 numbers in year three after failing to hit RB1 in year 2. Gurley was RB #1 in year four and low expectations are RB2 for Fournette in 2020. Dalvin Cook started his career on a bad note but finished at RB #3 in 2019. He joins Gurley, CMC, Gordon, Zeke, Davanta Freeman, and Fournette finishing RB1 in their third season. Expect Dalvin to have another RB1 (at worst RB2) season in 2020.
The “Middling” RB2:
– Melvin Gordon (19)
– Joe Mixon (20)
– Jordan Howard (20)
– Kareem Hunt (20)
Gordon is our only RB drafted to have three RB1 seasons after flopping his rookie season. He finished RB #52 that year. He finished RB #26 in 2019 but held himself out the first four games due to contract negotiations. Gordon’s closest comps are Carlos Hyde (RB #23 in 2019), Devonta Freeman (RB# 20 in 2019), and David Johnson (RB# 34 in 2019). In Denver now expect a 1A/1B situation with Phillip Lindsay. Joe Mixon is another RB who started a little slower (RB #32 in 2017) but was RB #11 in 2018 and RB #16 in 2019. Looking ahead at 2020 Mixon’s closest comps are Jay Ajayi and James Conner. Jordan Howard started off great finishing RB #9 his first two seasons. He fell to RB #24 in 2018 and RB #39 in 2019. His closest comp is Eddie Lacy. Gross.
The “Average” RB3:
– Derrick Henry (26)
– Sony Michel (29)
– Marlon Mack (31)
– David Johnson (33)
– Kenyan Drake (35)
Derrick Henry took forever to get going finally breaking out in year four (RB #6) which isn’t good historically. His nearly identical comp is Carlos Hyde who finished RB #46 in 2018 (year five) and RB #23 (year 6) in 2019. Historically thus far he’ll maybe have a good year or two and then fall off. Which could be why the Titans didn’t pay him. He’s coming up on 27-years old with a 35-year old’s usage. Sony finished RB #28 his rookie season in 2018 and RB #29 in 2019. The only other RB to have two RB3 seasons to start was Duke Johnson would was RB #14 in year three. Sony will be lucky to finish RB2 or better. Marlon Mack finished 2019 at RB #22 in his third season. He joins Tevin Coleman, Jeremy Hill, Terrance West, Jordan Howard, and Buck Allen. It would be surprising if the Colts don’t add another RB in the 2020 Draft. David Johnson seems to have passed his RB1 production finishing RB #34 in 2019. His closest comp is Melvin Gordon. I’d expect a Carlos Hyde role for him in Houston this year. Kenyan Drake finished RB #18 in 2019. He joins Tevin Coleman and most likely another RB in Arizona after the NFL Draft.
“Way-Too-Early-to-Know” RB’s:
– David Montgomery (24)
– Devin Singletary (28)
– Alexander Mattison (57)
David Montgomery was RB #24 in his 2019 rookie season. He joins Jeremy Langford, T.J. Yeldon, Andre Ellington, and Tre Mason in having a RB20-range rookie season. Expect low-end RB2 production in 2020. Singletary finished RB #28 in his 2019 rookie season. So did Sony Michel. Singletary and Kerryon Johnson are our only 2nd round PDFL RB’s to put up RB3 numbers year one. Closest comps for Singletary are Terrance West, Nyheim Hines, Jamaal Williams, Duke Johnson, Kerryon, and Joe Mixon. Odds are against Singletary to jump up to RB1 numbers considering Mixon was the only RB to do so and Mixon has better draft pedigree (Isaac took Mixon 1.2 in 2017 and was a 2nd round NFL Pick). Mattison finished RB #57 and enters 2020 as one of the top handcuffs in fantasy. Similar comps are Melvin Gordon, Davanta Freeman, Dalvin Cook, Jay Ajayi, and Kenyan Drake.
“WTF does all this mean?!”
27 of the 87 RB’s we’ve drafted are averaging fantasy relevant seasons. 15 x 1st rounders, 8 x 2nd rounders, and 4 x 3rd round PDFL RB’s. Of those 27 RB’s eight were drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. Five of them were drafted at pick #10 or earlier, and 4-out-of-5 are averaging RB1 careers. We’ve had nine total RB’s drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft and only Rashaad Penny hasn’t produced an RB3 or better season. 14 of the 27 have had a RB1 season. Only 11 RB’s of the 87 we’ve drafted started out with a RB1 rookie season. 2 RB’s of the 87 drafted started out RB2 and had a RB1 season eventually. Only Mixon (as mentioned) started out RB3 and had a RB1 season. 57 RB’s did not hit RB3 or better numbers their rookie seasons. Among those 57 only 7 eventually had a RB1 season. Bottom line; 21 of the 87 PDFL RB’s drafted produced a RB1 season. Drafting a RB that hits RB1 numbers year 1 is rare (12%) and worth keeping for at least 6 seasons before they’re traded. Hitting RB3 or better year 1 is key. Short-shelf life on these guys.
2020 Rookie RB’s Historic Odds:
– D’Andre Swift & Jonathan Taylor: Being drafted in the 1st round would greatly improve their odds of starting out as RB2’s immediately. The 1st round average is RB #18. Being selected in the top 10 picks gives either of these two a strong chance to have RB1 numbers from the start and elite careers.
– Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers, and J.K. Dobbins: Round 2 career average is RB #45. Earlier in the 2nd round the better. I expect all three to go Round 2 with Chubb/Bell upside.
– The rest of the bunch: expecting a Kamara in Round 3 isn’t likely but if any of the five above mentioned fall they have the profiles to put up numbers in a good situation. The only problem is there aren’t that many ‘good’ situations in 2020.
Career averages based on the NFL Draft:
RB 1-10 Pick = Avg. RB9
RP 11-32 Pick = Avg. RB30
RB 33-48 Pick = Avg. RB35
RB 49-64 Pick = Avg. RB56
3rd Round RB = Avg. RB55
4th Round RB = Avg. RB82
5th Round RB = Avg. RB72
6th Round RB = Avg. RB109
7th Round RB = Avg. RB82 (3 of 5 didn’t play)