Since 2013 there have been 43 QB’s drafted in the PDFL Rookie Drafts. Diving into Dynasty long term player values here are the QB numbers in regard to Rookie Draft Efficiency (R.D.E.):
3-of-43 QB’s are averaging top-12 seasons through their career (QB1)
10-of-43 QB’s are averaging 13-24 season finishes (QB2)
4-of-43 QB’s are averaging 25-36 season finishes (QB3)
26-of-43 QB’s are starting slow, shouldn’t be rostered, and/or don’t play any longer
Averaging QB1 Fantasy Seasons:
– Patrick Mahomes (4)
– Kyler Murray (8)
– Deshaun Watson (11)
If Mahomes wouldn’t have had a redshirt rookie season he would be the phenom rookie but finishing QB #1 in Fantasy football in 2018 and QB #7 in 2019 ain’t too shabby. Watson was QB #25 his rookie season (good enough for QB3 numbers) and skyrocketed to #5 in 2018 and #2 in 2019. The best rookie QB season our league has ever had is Kyler Murray #8 in 2019. Before Murray was Jameis Winston QB #14 his rookie season in 2015.
The “Upside” QB2:
– Carson Wentz (15)
– Josh Allen (15)
– Lamar Jackson (16)
– Jared Goff (17)
– Daniel Jones (24)
Wentz finished QB #10 in 2019 while Allen was QB #5 and the reigning MVR Lamar Jackson was #1. Lamar and Allen both took the Sophomore jump like Watson and could be in the QB1 club soon. Wentz should be but due to injury his seasons have ended #24, #4, #20, and #10 in 2019. Goff sat behind Case Keenum his rookie season and finished #37 in 2016. He changed that quickly having QB #8 and QB #9 finishes in 17’ and 18’. Goff finished QB #15 in 2019. He joins a small club of having two QB1 Fantasy Seasons; Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, and Blake Bortles… 25% chance he’s a backup in 2021. Daniel Jones finished QB #24 in his 2019 rookie campaign. So did Carson Wentz.
The “Middling” QB2:
– Derek Carr (16)
– Jameis Winston (17)
– Baker Mayfield (19)
– Marcus Mariota (21)
– Mitchel Trubisky (23)
Carr has only had one QB1 season (2017) in his six-year career but he remains a top QB2 option in Super Flex. He’s also the only 2nd round NFL QB to put up QB2 numbers. Winston lost his job after his first and only QB1 season in 2019. Strong start to his career (#14 and #15) but fell to QB3 numbers in 2017 and 2018 (#23 and #26). Winston is worth a stash to resurface and be inconsistent once again. Baker is starting off on the same path as Carr and Winston. He needs a QB1 season after finishing #17 in 2018 and #20 in 2019. Carr popped off in his 3rd season so it could be the year for Baker. 2021 would then be the best time to sell. Mariota started off well. His first three seasons are really close to what Wentz did, but Mariota finished QB #22 in 2018 and QB #34 in 2019. He’s a stash-&-flip QB3 who could have a Tannehill type season in 2020. Trubisky is the only rookie QB we’ve drafted who’s managed to progress and regress in 3-years. Winston had a QB3 season his junior year as well (#23), but Mitchel appears to be on a shorter leash than Winston had after year 3 finishing QB #25 in 2019.
The “Average” QB3:
– Blake Bortles (25)
– Sam Darnold (28)
– Mason Rudolph (30)
Bortles was awesome in terms of Fantasy having seasons of QB #25, #4, #13, #10, #25, to backing up Goff in 2019. I’d be kind of surprised if Bortles isn’t putting up low QB2 numbers again someday. Darnold is starting off on the wrong note having a QB #28 finish his rookie season and QB #27 in 2019. The only other rookie QB we’ve drafted to start off with two consecutive QB3 seasons was Mike Glennon (#26 and #34). Darnold looks to be on the EJ Manuel/Josh Rosen career path.
“Way-Too-Early-to-Know” QB’s:
– Dwayne Haskins (36)
– Drew Lock (38)
Haskins finishing QB #36 in his 2019 rookie season isn’t the end of the world. Watson and Lamar put up QB3 numbers their rookie seasons, but Haskins could get Rosen’d in three weeks due to a new regime. Drew Lock is interesting because his only comp thus far is Jared Goff. Lock finished his 2019 rookie season at QB#38. Goff’s rookie season; QB #37. Lock has the franchise’s support and no big changes except he may get a new weapon in the draft. Joey’s pick may have just worked out for him, but now, we’ll never know.
“WTF does all this mean?!”
17 of the 43 QB’s we’ve drafted are averaging fantasy relevant seasons. 15 x 1st rounders, 1x 2nd rounder, a lone 3rd round PDFL QB. Of those 17 QB’s 15 were drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. 14 of them were drafted at pick #15 or earlier. Four of them were the number 1 overall pick and only two of those four had a QB1 season in 2019. One of those two is currently unemployed. Advice: unless an NFL team drafts a QB picks 1-15 don’t consider them early in our rookie drafts. Otherwise you end up with Geno Smith or Johnny Manziel…
2020 Rookie QB’s Historic Odds:
– Joe Burrow: QB’s taken #1 overall in the NFL since 2013 are averaging QB #15. Good enough for top QB2 production.
– Tua Tagovailoa: QB’s taken #2 or #3 since 2013 are averaging QB #22. A low end QB2 in Super Flex format.
– Justin Herbert: QB’s taken picks 4 through 15 are also averaging QB #22. Not much disparity at all. None actually.
– Jordan Love: QB’s taken 16-32 in the 1st round are averaging QB #39. Just outside of a QB3 option on bye weeks.
– Jalen Hurts & Jacob Eason: QB’s taken in the 2nd round are also averaging QB #39. Hackenberg never played a down.
– Jake Fromm & 3rd round company: Averaging QB #45.
– 4th Round: Averaging QB #57.
– 5th Round & Later: Averaging QB #60.