Since 2013 there have been 94 WR’s drafted in the PDFL Rookie Drafts. Diving into Dynasty long term player values here are the WR numbers in regard to Rookie Draft Efficiency (R.D.E.):
1-of-94 WR’s are averaging top-12 seasons through their career (WR1)
7-of-94 WR’s are averaging 13-24 season finishes (WR2)
8-of-94 WR’s are averaging 25-36 season finishes (WR3)
78-of-94 WR’s are starting slow, shouldn’t be rostered, and/or don’t play any longer
Averaging WR1 Fantasy Seasons:
– Michael Thomas (6)
MT is the only WR who is averaging WR1 numbers through his four-year career. He’s posted seasons of WR #11, WR #7, WR #5, and WR #1 in 2019. Mike Evans and OBJ were the only other WR’s to have a WR1 rookie season. The position has a “late bloomer” label but MT is the exception. MT and OBJ are the only WR’s to reach WR1 in their first and second seasons. MT is the PDFL super freak and Dalton is the PDFL WR Guru. I’m just happy the Vikes passed on MT for Treadwell…
The “Elite” WR2:
– Mike Evans (13)
– DeAndre Hopkins (18)
– Amari Cooper (20)
– Odell Beckham Jr. (23)
Evans, in his six-year career, has posted seasons of WR #12, WR #27, WR #3, WR #18, WR #9, and WR #8 in 2019. That’s four WR1 seasons, one WR2 season, and one WR3 season. Only two other WR’s had WR1 seasons in years five and six (Keenan Allen & DeAndre Hopkins) and they both posted WR1 seasons in their seventh season. Nuk, the 1.2 rookie pick in our first rookie draft ever (and not 1.1 because I’m an idiot – nice pick Sac) had a slow start (WR #55) before posting four WR1 seasons, one WR2 season, and nearly a WR3 season in 2016 (WR #39). Uncharted PDFL territory but he’s clearly in his prime coming of three straight WR1 seasons. Amari broke out immediately posting WR #21 and WR #12 seasons. He fell to WR #39 then bounced back with a WR #18 season and a WR #9 season in 2019. Which is identical to what Mike Evans did in years four and five then posted WR #8 in year six. Expect Amari to hit the WR1 club for a couple years. OBJ posted the best rookie season for a PDFL rookie (WR #5) followed up by two more WR1 seasons. Unfortunately, he lost his way posting seasons of WR #81, WR #14, and WR #31 in 2019. Again, uncharted territory because the only other WR we’ve drafted to have a WR3 season in year six is Davante Adams (WR #27). Year seven has shown it’ll be WR1 numbers or don’t even start him numbers.
The “Upside” WR2:
– A.J. Brown (21)
– Calvin Ridley (22)
– Cooper Kupp (24)
AB (the sane one) is in a group of only six WR’s that have started out with a WR2 rookie season. He was WR #21 in 2019. The only other WR to also have a WR #21 rookie season was Amari Cooper. Ridley is our only PDFL WR to start out with two consecutive WR2 seasons posting WR #20 in 2018 and WR #23 in 2019. The closest WR to do the same was Sammy Watkins who went on to have a WR #91 season in year three. Sammy had upside too, right? Guys? Cooper Kupp (Isaac’s southern accent) started out with a WR #24 season, dropped to WR #42 due to injury, then had a WR #6 season in 2019. Two other WR’s had WR #6 seasons year three as well: Nuk & Brandin Cooks. Cooks had two WR2 seasons after that and Nuk is Nuk. Upside is there.
The “Not-So-Average” WR3:
– DJ Moore (27)
– Brandin Cooks (27)
– Juju Smith-Schuster (33)
– Courtland Sutton (34)
– Davante Adams (34)
Averaging WR3 careers isn’t a bad thing considering there’s only eight of them and three of which were rookies in 2019. DJ was WR #40 his rookie year and followed it up with WR #14 in 2019. His closest comp is Nuk who posted WR #6 in year three. Cooks might be seeing the end of his NFL career due to head injuries and having Garret’s body frame, but he had some nice seasons posting two WR1 seasons and two WR2 seasons. In 2018 Cooks was WR #16, and OBJ was WR #14. In year six we know OBJ posted WR #31 in 2019 so if Cooks is still alive and able to run and catch, he is a solid WR3 bet. Juju is our only PDFL WR to have a WR3 rookie season followed up with a WR1 season. He fell to WR #62 in year three but so did Amari Cooper who started out very similar to Juju (WR #21 & WR #12). Like DJ Moore, Sutton started out with a WR #48 season and a WR #19 season in 2019. He too his comped with Nuk. I like him A LOT. Davante started out mind-numbingly slow posting WR #74 and WR #83 seasons. In year three and four he was WR #9, WR #1 in 2018, and WR #27 in 2019. OBJ and Davante are very similar. OBJ had one more WR2 season that Davante didn’t have but I’d expect not-so-average Adams to jump up into the Elite WR2 category next year.
“Way-Too-Early-to-Know” WR’s:
– Terry McLaurin (25)
– D.K Metcalf (34)
– Deebo Samuel (36)
These three rookies had WR3 seasons in 2019. You must love the promising start. Unfortunately, five other WR’s we’ve drafted also had WR3 rookie seasons: Jordan Matthews, Sammy Watkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Sterling Shepard, and Juju. Matthews had another WR3 season in year two before falling off. Shepard had a WR3 season in year three. Juju is the only WR who posted a WR1 season and I was quick to cash out. I held Sammy. Word of advice on these three; don’t hold Sammy guys. Washington and San Fran should be addressing WR early in the 2020 NFL Draft. Metcalf may be the lone bright spot and our next Juju.
“WTF does all this mean?!”
Of our 94 WR’s drafted here are the number of WR’s to post a WR1 season from the start of their careers:
Year 1: 3 WR’s
Year 2: 6 WR’s
Year 3: 8 WR’s
Year 4: 2 WR’s
Year 5: 6 WR’s
Year 6: 5 WR’s
Year 7: 2 WR’s
A WR’s third season truly is the breaking point. Year four for a WR must be the year they’re on the Madden cover because they’re all down. In year five, however, four of those year three breakout WR’s returned to fantasy relevance. Year three WR’s looking to make the jump in 2020 include DJ Moore, DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Gallup. Late bloomer possibilities are Christian Kirk, James Washington, Anthony Miller, and John Ross. The late bloomers of date include Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, and Davante Adams.
2020 Rookie WR’s:
Later round WR’s really don’t do all that much. You basically need to be a 1st or 2nd round NFL WR to hit WR1 numbers. There are a few exceptions but roughly all our drafted WR’s who have hit have been drafted high. Luckily, the 2020 rookie crop is a great year for that. Notable 1st and 2nd round NFL Prospects:
– Jerry Jeudy
– CeeDee Lamb
– Henry Ruggs III
– Justin Jefferson
– Tee Higgins
– Denzel Mims
– Jalen Reagor
– Laviska Shenault Jr.
– Brandon Aiyuk